Ranked by real market volume with CLOB enrichment where available
Trending Markets
Trending by volume
| Market | Category | Odds | Volume | Liquidity | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | General | Yes: 28% No: 72.1% | $9,895,986 | $261,430 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | General | Yes: 0.6% No: 99.5% | $9,873,071 | $2,054,483 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/). | General | Yes: 24.9% No: 75.1% | $999,444 | $165,826 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | General | Yes: 0.5% No: 99.6% | $993,680 | $142,259 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| General | Yes: 5.5% No: 94.6% | $988,182 | $3,497 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | General | Yes: 2.3% No: 97.8% | $987,260 | $120,471 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market. | General | Yes: 4.9% No: 95.2% | $987,074 | $79,905 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. | General | Yes: 1.7% No: 98.3% | $99,892 | $26,651 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | General | Yes: 0.6% No: 99.5% | $99,877 | $32,184 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | General | Yes: 4.5% No: 95.5% | $99,797 | $22,934 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. | General | Yes: 64.3% No: 35.7% | $99,794 | $3,161 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | General | Yes: 1.3% No: 98.8% | $99,783 | $20,049 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify. | General | Yes: 9% No: 91% | $99,556 | $21,908 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". | General | Yes: 9.5% No: 90.5% | $99,241 | $17,983 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist for 2026? Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026.
This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026.
If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped.
This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies. | General | Yes: 0.3% No: 99.8% | $99,218 | $20,474 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP? This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | General | Yes: 1.8% No: 98.2% | $98,828 | $14,583 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Loopscale (http://x.com/Loopscale) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Loopscale, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | General | Yes: 30.5% No: 69.5% | $98,809 | $530 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | General | Yes: 6.5% No: 93.5% | $98,796 | $18,078 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Epstein storage units raided in 2026? Recent reports show that Jeffrey Epstein previously used multiple storage units to hide files, computers, and other belongings (see: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/22/jeffrey-epstein-secret-files-storage-units-united-states/?ICID=continue_without_subscribing_reg_first).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any private individual or government authority discovers and examines the contents of a storage unit previously rented by or on behalf of Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying storage unit must contain items previously belonging to or associated with Jeffrey Epstein at the time it is examined. The examination of a storage unit previously rented by or on behalf of Jeffrey Epstein which no longer contains any items related to Epstein will not count.
Only searches conducted within this market’s timeframe will count. Previously available or newly published information which demonstrates that storage units previously rented by or on behalf of Jeffrey Epstein were examined prior to this market’s creation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | General | Yes: 26% No: 74% | $9,989 | $2,863 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if MegaETH launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from MegaETH, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | General | Yes: 17% No: 83% | $9,982 | $565 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NHL for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of NHL for the 2026-27 season per the rules of NHL (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | General | Yes: 10.5% No: 89.5% | $9,958 | $122,223 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election? This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. | General | Yes: 49% No: 51% | $9,956 | $1,311 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw? In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 16, 2026
If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. | General | Yes: 16% No: 84% | $9,948 | $4,675 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | General | Yes: 4.3% No: 95.7% | $9,943 | $17,464 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apyx officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only an official token launched by Apyx will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.
The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apyx (https://x.com/apyx_fi), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | General | Yes: 73.5% No: 26.5% | $9,934 | $1,526 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | General | Yes: 68.5% No: 31.5% | $9,928 | $6,470 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 21? This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. | General | Yes: 25.5% No: 74.5% | $9,919 | $2,645 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 21 12:00 PM ET to July 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source. | General | Yes: 0.9% No: 99.2% | $9,915 | $11,103 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat? This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | General | Yes: 56% No: 44% | $9,906 | $3,354 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
| General | Yes: 20.5% No: 79.5% | $9,904 | $773 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OR-04 House seat? This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | General | Yes: 93.5% No: 6.5% | $9,901 | $19,302 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by July 31? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neuralink's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. | General | Yes: 1.4% No: 98.6% | $9,889 | $1,183 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-14 House seat? This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | General | Yes: 8% No: 92% | $9,889 | $22,255 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat? This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | General | Yes: 92.5% No: 7.5% | $9,879 | $16,821 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 AL East title? This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB American League East division.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed nickname comes first alphabetically.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named the 2026 American League East division champion per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | General | Yes: 7.6% No: 92.5% | $9,878 | $9,659 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Kylie Jenner is engaged to be married to Timothée Chalamet by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it is announced that Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Kylie Jenner and/or Timothée Chalamet or one of their representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | General | Yes: 15.5% No: 84.5% | $9,877 | $109 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July? This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. | General | Yes: 0.5% No: 99.5% | $9,870 | $15,553 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AR-01 House seat? This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | General | Yes: 1.8% No: 98.3% | $9,868 | $11,369 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Republican Party win the IA-04 House seat? This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | General | Yes: 93.5% No: 6.5% | $9,863 | $20,438 | Gamma + CLOB |
| Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat? This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | General | Yes: 2.5% No: 97.5% | $9,861 | $16,182 | Gamma + CLOB |